I agree that speed and shape of the robot adoption is uncertain. And they might transform specific service industries, and the nature of our public space. But not the economy overall in which almost any action already relies on a many highly advanced and largely automated value chains. Not just your phone, but even the pencil you use and the food you buy is substantially produced, sorted and transported by machines (fertilizer production, irrigation, harvesting, procfessing, transporting etc, etc).
The focus on robots is absolutely crucial and we need more pieces like this to talk about it, where it is clearly explained: 1) why robots? 2) How they work; 3) What are the implications. The book 'The Hearth and the Chip' by Daniela Rus illustrates how robotics is making giant strides and that, naturally also considering the possibility of lateral effects, the 'coexistence' with advanced robots represents a great opportunity for society and for improving working conditions. Naturally, this also has an important effect on the economy. To give a tangible example, in the small town of Sorrento, near where I grew up, they hired two robots in a famous restaurant, which actually went into business recently.
Nice piece Conrad. I have to believe that the answer is “yes.” Geopolitical tensions are aligning such that, I expect we are going to see less global trade and more localized manufacturing.
This “near shoring” will help accelerate the rise of these humanoid factory robots. From there, it will not take long for the price of them to reach regular consumers.
A general purpose machine that can do laundry, cook, and clear, would sell like hotcakes for $20k.
I understand your point. We will have to see which direction the industry and the market will take. Humanoid robots will have to prove their value not only against human workers but also against traditional, simpler, and more cost-efficient robots.
The argument that soon everyone will have a home humanoid robot somewhat reminds me of the conversations about 3D printing in the early 2010s. Some people imagined that soon, everyone would have a 3D printer (or at least easy access to one) and that many everyday tools and items would be 3D printed on demand. That did not happen, but 3D printing has been improving over the years, and only now are we seeing consumer 3D printers that are easy to use and do not require a tinkerer mindset to work with them.
Maybe humanoid robots will follow a similar path—experiencing an early burn and crash so that later iterations can gradually find their place.
You didn't address the most useful and even unavoidable use case of future (humanoid) robots, namely work in areas inaccessible to humans, especially in space.
IMHO, robots will be the true enablers of the space economy. Long before humanity shall venture in deep space or even other planets or other celestial bodies (moons, asteroids), that path will have been for long threaded by robots. First to devise space factories, to produce in situ the building blocks of the assembled materials, avoiding the prohibitive cost of satellization. They will also build the initial shelters we, so fragile humans, will join, when we'll start to have permanent bases on the Moon, and next on Mars.
They will also build fascinating space cities on the Lagrange points, provided we are not wiping ourselves before, either from e.g. a nuclear holocaust or because ASI has decided we are truly hopeless, and just have to be collectively cast into the bins of History.
Robots in space is a great topic for another article. In general, I'd like to get into writing article discussing space exploration.
I focused in this article on the near future of humanoid robots. And I agree, space exploration will be robotic.It is already robotic, with all the space probes we sent and will send. As you wrote, robots will play a crucial role, building and maintaining space stations and bases on the Moon, Mars, asteroids, and more.
I agree that speed and shape of the robot adoption is uncertain. And they might transform specific service industries, and the nature of our public space. But not the economy overall in which almost any action already relies on a many highly advanced and largely automated value chains. Not just your phone, but even the pencil you use and the food you buy is substantially produced, sorted and transported by machines (fertilizer production, irrigation, harvesting, procfessing, transporting etc, etc).
The focus on robots is absolutely crucial and we need more pieces like this to talk about it, where it is clearly explained: 1) why robots? 2) How they work; 3) What are the implications. The book 'The Hearth and the Chip' by Daniela Rus illustrates how robotics is making giant strides and that, naturally also considering the possibility of lateral effects, the 'coexistence' with advanced robots represents a great opportunity for society and for improving working conditions. Naturally, this also has an important effect on the economy. To give a tangible example, in the small town of Sorrento, near where I grew up, they hired two robots in a famous restaurant, which actually went into business recently.
I've added the book you've mentioned to my list, thanks! And thanks for an idea for another article.
True, the robots are coming and the ChatGPT moment for robotics is getting nearer and nearer. The society and the economy is not prepared for that.
Glad it helped, let me know what you will think about the book!
Nice piece Conrad. I have to believe that the answer is “yes.” Geopolitical tensions are aligning such that, I expect we are going to see less global trade and more localized manufacturing.
This “near shoring” will help accelerate the rise of these humanoid factory robots. From there, it will not take long for the price of them to reach regular consumers.
A general purpose machine that can do laundry, cook, and clear, would sell like hotcakes for $20k.
I understand your point. We will have to see which direction the industry and the market will take. Humanoid robots will have to prove their value not only against human workers but also against traditional, simpler, and more cost-efficient robots.
The argument that soon everyone will have a home humanoid robot somewhat reminds me of the conversations about 3D printing in the early 2010s. Some people imagined that soon, everyone would have a 3D printer (or at least easy access to one) and that many everyday tools and items would be 3D printed on demand. That did not happen, but 3D printing has been improving over the years, and only now are we seeing consumer 3D printers that are easy to use and do not require a tinkerer mindset to work with them.
Maybe humanoid robots will follow a similar path—experiencing an early burn and crash so that later iterations can gradually find their place.
I think the usage case makes a huge difference. If you ask me what I would do with a 3D printer, I struggle to answer.
Ask me what a humanoid robot would do, I could give you a list
You didn't address the most useful and even unavoidable use case of future (humanoid) robots, namely work in areas inaccessible to humans, especially in space.
IMHO, robots will be the true enablers of the space economy. Long before humanity shall venture in deep space or even other planets or other celestial bodies (moons, asteroids), that path will have been for long threaded by robots. First to devise space factories, to produce in situ the building blocks of the assembled materials, avoiding the prohibitive cost of satellization. They will also build the initial shelters we, so fragile humans, will join, when we'll start to have permanent bases on the Moon, and next on Mars.
They will also build fascinating space cities on the Lagrange points, provided we are not wiping ourselves before, either from e.g. a nuclear holocaust or because ASI has decided we are truly hopeless, and just have to be collectively cast into the bins of History.
Robots in space is a great topic for another article. In general, I'd like to get into writing article discussing space exploration.
I focused in this article on the near future of humanoid robots. And I agree, space exploration will be robotic.It is already robotic, with all the space probes we sent and will send. As you wrote, robots will play a crucial role, building and maintaining space stations and bases on the Moon, Mars, asteroids, and more.